I love Linux, but I'm not sure it will ever replace Windows as the number one desktop operating system.
It has become something of a cliché that Linux has reached a critical point in its development and adoption. However, this is especially true now when we look at what events are lined up to occur in the near future, and particularly in the desktop area.
Perhaps the most visible event is the impending launch of Microsoft's Vista. Try as they might, this new OS shows every sign of needing hardware replacement, some user training, and considerable support staff training to be truly effective in deployment. Particularly note the last two, often cited as reasons why moving to Linux is expensive and fraught with danger. Of course, Linux doesn't have the added disadvantage of needing a hardware upgrade."